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May 11

D-VRE: From a Jupyter-enabled Private Research Environment to Decentralized Collaborative Research Ecosystem

Today, scientific research is increasingly data-centric and compute-intensive, relying on data and models across distributed sources. However, it still faces challenges in the traditional cooperation mode, due to the high storage and computing cost, geo-location barriers, and local confidentiality regulations. The Jupyter environment has recently emerged and evolved as a vital virtual research environment for scientific computing, which researchers can use to scale computational analyses up to larger datasets and high-performance computing resources. Nevertheless, existing approaches lack robust support of a decentralized cooperation mode to unlock the full potential of decentralized collaborative scientific research, e.g., seamlessly secure data sharing. In this work, we change the basic structure and legacy norms of current research environments via the seamless integration of Jupyter with Ethereum blockchain capabilities. As such, it creates a Decentralized Virtual Research Environment (D-VRE) from private computational notebooks to decentralized collaborative research ecosystem. We propose a novel architecture for the D-VRE and prototype some essential D-VRE elements for enabling secure data sharing with decentralized identity, user-centric agreement-making, membership, and research asset management. To validate our method, we conducted an experimental study to test all functionalities of D-VRE smart contracts and their gas consumption. In addition, we deployed the D-VRE prototype on a test net of the Ethereum blockchain for demonstration. The feedback from the studies showcases the current prototype's usability, ease of use, and potential and suggests further improvements.

  • 4 authors
·
May 24, 2024

Data Storage in the Decentralized World: Blockchain and Derivatives

We have entered an era where the importance of decentralized solutions has become more obvious. Blockchain technology and its derivatives are distributed ledger technologies that keep the registry of data between peers of a network. This ledger is secured within a successive over looping cryptographic chain. The accomplishment of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency proved that blockchain technology and its derivatives could be used to eliminate intermediaries and provide security for cyberspace. However, there are some challenges in the implementation of blockchain technology. This chapter first explains the concept of blockchain technology and the data that we can store therein. The main advantage of blockchain is the security services that it provides. This section continues by describing these services.. The challenges of blockchain; blockchain anomalies, energy consumption, speed, scalability, interoperability, privacy and cryptology in the age of quantum computing are described. Selected solutions for these challenges are given. Remarkable derivatives of blockchain, which use different solutions (directed acyclic graph, distributed hash table, gossip consensus protocol) to solve some of these challenges are described. Then the data storage in blockchain and evolving data solutions are explained. The comparison of decentralized solutions with the lcentralized database systems is given. A multi-platform interoperable scalable architecture (MPISA) is proposed. In the conclusion we include the evolution assumptions of data storage in a decentralized world.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 18, 2020

zkBridge: Trustless Cross-chain Bridges Made Practical

Blockchains have seen growing traction with cryptocurrencies reaching a market cap of over 1 trillion dollars, major institution investors taking interests, and global impacts on governments, businesses, and individuals. Also growing significantly is the heterogeneity of the ecosystem where a variety of blockchains co-exist. Cross-chain bridge is a necessary building block in this multi-chain ecosystem. Existing solutions, however, either suffer from performance issues or rely on trust assumptions of committees that significantly lower the security. Recurring attacks against bridges have cost users more than 1.5 billion USD. In this paper, we introduce zkBridge, an efficient cross-chain bridge that guarantees strong security without external trust assumptions. With succinct proofs, zkBridge not only guarantees correctness, but also significantly reduces on-chain verification cost. We propose novel succinct proof protocols that are orders-of-magnitude faster than existing solutions for workload in zkBridge. With a modular design, zkBridge enables a broad spectrum of use cases and capabilities, including message passing, token transferring, and other computational logic operating on state changes from different chains. To demonstrate the practicality of zkBridge, we implemented a prototype bridge from Cosmos to Ethereum, a particularly challenging direction that involves large proof circuits that existing systems cannot efficiently handle. Our evaluation shows that zkBridge achieves practical performance: proof generation takes less than 20 seconds, while verifying proofs on-chain costs less than 230K gas. For completeness, we also implemented and evaluated the direction from Ethereum to other EVM-compatible chains (such as BSC) which involves smaller circuits and incurs much less overhead.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 1, 2022

Blockchain-Based Federated Learning: Incentivizing Data Sharing and Penalizing Dishonest Behavior

With the increasing importance of data sharing for collaboration and innovation, it is becoming more important to ensure that data is managed and shared in a secure and trustworthy manner. Data governance is a common approach to managing data, but it faces many challenges such as data silos, data consistency, privacy, security, and access control. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a comprehensive framework that integrates data trust in federated learning with InterPlanetary File System, blockchain, and smart contracts to facilitate secure and mutually beneficial data sharing while providing incentives, access control mechanisms, and penalizing any dishonest behavior. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model is effective in improving the accuracy of federated learning models while ensuring the security and fairness of the data-sharing process. The research paper also presents a decentralized federated learning platform that successfully trained a CNN model on the MNIST dataset using blockchain technology. The platform enables multiple workers to train the model simultaneously while maintaining data privacy and security. The decentralized architecture and use of blockchain technology allow for efficient communication and coordination between workers. This platform has the potential to facilitate decentralized machine learning and support privacy-preserving collaboration in various domains.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 19, 2023

A game-theoretic analysis of networked system control for common-pool resource management using multi-agent reinforcement learning

Multi-agent reinforcement learning has recently shown great promise as an approach to networked system control. Arguably, one of the most difficult and important tasks for which large scale networked system control is applicable is common-pool resource management. Crucial common-pool resources include arable land, fresh water, wetlands, wildlife, fish stock, forests and the atmosphere, of which proper management is related to some of society's greatest challenges such as food security, inequality and climate change. Here we take inspiration from a recent research program investigating the game-theoretic incentives of humans in social dilemma situations such as the well-known tragedy of the commons. However, instead of focusing on biologically evolved human-like agents, our concern is rather to better understand the learning and operating behaviour of engineered networked systems comprising general-purpose reinforcement learning agents, subject only to nonbiological constraints such as memory, computation and communication bandwidth. Harnessing tools from empirical game-theoretic analysis, we analyse the differences in resulting solution concepts that stem from employing different information structures in the design of networked multi-agent systems. These information structures pertain to the type of information shared between agents as well as the employed communication protocol and network topology. Our analysis contributes new insights into the consequences associated with certain design choices and provides an additional dimension of comparison between systems beyond efficiency, robustness, scalability and mean control performance.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 15, 2020

Proof-of-Contribution-Based Design for Collaborative Machine Learning on Blockchain

We consider a project (model) owner that would like to train a model by utilizing the local private data and compute power of interested data owners, i.e., trainers. Our goal is to design a data marketplace for such decentralized collaborative/federated learning applications that simultaneously provides i) proof-of-contribution based reward allocation so that the trainers are compensated based on their contributions to the trained model; ii) privacy-preserving decentralized model training by avoiding any data movement from data owners; iii) robustness against malicious parties (e.g., trainers aiming to poison the model); iv) verifiability in the sense that the integrity, i.e., correctness, of all computations in the data market protocol including contribution assessment and outlier detection are verifiable through zero-knowledge proofs; and v) efficient and universal design. We propose a blockchain-based marketplace design to achieve all five objectives mentioned above. In our design, we utilize a distributed storage infrastructure and an aggregator aside from the project owner and the trainers. The aggregator is a processing node that performs certain computations, including assessing trainer contributions, removing outliers, and updating hyper-parameters. We execute the proposed data market through a blockchain smart contract. The deployed smart contract ensures that the project owner cannot evade payment, and honest trainers are rewarded based on their contributions at the end of training. Finally, we implement the building blocks of the proposed data market and demonstrate their applicability in practical scenarios through extensive experiments.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 27, 2023

A Decentralized Retrieval Augmented Generation System with Source Reliabilities Secured on Blockchain

Existing retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically use a centralized architecture, causing a high cost of data collection, integration, and management, as well as privacy concerns. There is a great need for a decentralized RAG system that enables foundation models to utilize information directly from data owners who maintain full control over their sources. However, decentralization brings a challenge: the numerous independent data sources vary significantly in reliability, which can diminish retrieval accuracy and response quality. To address this, our decentralized RAG system has a novel reliability scoring mechanism that dynamically evaluates each source based on the quality of responses it contributes to generate and prioritizes high-quality sources during retrieval. To ensure transparency and trust, the scoring process is securely managed through blockchain-based smart contracts, creating verifiable and tamper-proof reliability records without relying on a central authority. We evaluate our decentralized system with two Llama models (3B and 8B) in two simulated environments where six data sources have different levels of reliability. Our system achieves a +10.7\% performance improvement over its centralized counterpart in the real world-like unreliable data environments. Notably, it approaches the upper-bound performance of centralized systems under ideally reliable data environments. The decentralized infrastructure enables secure and trustworthy scoring management, achieving approximately 56\% marginal cost savings through batched update operations. Our code and system are open-sourced at github.com/yining610/Reliable-dRAG.

Simplicial Closure and higher-order link prediction

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 19, 2018

Autonomous Agents on Blockchains: Standards, Execution Models, and Trust Boundaries

Advances in large language models have enabled agentic AI systems that can reason, plan, and interact with external tools to execute multi-step workflows, while public blockchains have evolved into a programmable substrate for value transfer, access control, and verifiable state transitions. Their convergence introduces a high-stakes systems challenge: designing standard, interoperable, and secure interfaces that allow agents to observe on-chain state, formulate transaction intents, and authorize execution without exposing users, protocols, or organizations to unacceptable security, governance, or economic risks. This survey systematizes the emerging landscape of agent-blockchain interoperability through a systematic literature review, identifying 317 relevant works from an initial pool of over 3000 records. We contribute a five-part taxonomy of integration patterns spanning read-only analytics, simulation and intent generation, delegated execution, autonomous signing, and multi-agent workflows; a threat model tailored to agent-driven transaction pipelines that captures risks ranging from prompt injection and policy misuse to key compromise, adversarial execution dynamics, and multi-agent collusion; and a comparative capability matrix analyzing more than 20 representative systems across 13 dimensions, including custody models, permissioning, policy enforcement, observability, and recovery. Building on the gaps revealed by this analysis, we outline a research roadmap centered on two interface abstractions: a Transaction Intent Schema for portable and unambiguous goal specification, and a Policy Decision Record for auditable, verifiable policy enforcement across execution environments. We conclude by proposing a reproducible evaluation suite and benchmarks for assessing the safety, reliability, and economic robustness of agent-mediated on-chain execution.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 7

Understanding Graph Databases: A Comprehensive Tutorial and Survey

This tutorial serves as a comprehensive guide for understanding graph databases, focusing on the fundamentals of graph theory while showcasing practical applications across various fields. It starts by introducing foundational concepts and delves into the structure of graphs through nodes and edges, covering different types such as undirected, directed, weighted, and unweighted graphs. Key graph properties, terminologies, and essential algorithms for network analysis are outlined, including Dijkstras shortest path algorithm and methods for calculating node centrality and graph connectivity. The tutorial highlights the advantages of graph databases over traditional relational databases, particularly in efficiently managing complex, interconnected data. It examines leading graph database systems such as Neo4j, Amazon Neptune, and ArangoDB, emphasizing their unique features for handling large datasets. Practical instructions on graph operations using NetworkX and Neo4j are provided, covering node and edge creation, attribute assignment, and advanced queries with Cypher. Additionally, the tutorial explores common graph visualization techniques using tools like Plotly and Neo4j Bloom, which enhance the interpretation and usability of graph data. It also delves into community detection algorithms, including the Louvain method, which facilitates clustering in large networks. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for researchers interested in exploring the vast potential of graph technologies.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 15, 2024

Critical Nodes Identification in Complex Networks: A Survey

Complex networks have become essential tools for understanding diverse phenomena in social systems, traffic systems, biomolecular systems, and financial systems. Identifying critical nodes is a central theme in contemporary research, serving as a vital bridge between theoretical foundations and practical applications. Nevertheless, the intrinsic complexity and structural heterogeneity characterizing real-world networks, with particular emphasis on dynamic and higher-order networks, present substantial obstacles to the development of universal frameworks for critical node identification. This paper provides a comprehensive review of critical node identification techniques, categorizing them into seven main classes: centrality, critical nodes deletion problem, influence maximization, network control, artificial intelligence, higher-order and dynamic methods. Our review bridges the gaps in existing surveys by systematically classifying methods based on their methodological foundations and practical implications, and by highlighting their strengths, limitations, and applicability across different network types. Our work enhances the understanding of critical node research by identifying key challenges, such as algorithmic universality, real-time evaluation in dynamic networks, analysis of higher-order structures, and computational efficiency in large-scale networks. The structured synthesis consolidates current progress and highlights open questions, particularly in modeling temporal dynamics, advancing efficient algorithms, integrating machine learning approaches, and developing scalable and interpretable metrics for complex systems.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 8, 2025

Accelerating Scientific Discovery with Generative Knowledge Extraction, Graph-Based Representation, and Multimodal Intelligent Graph Reasoning

Leveraging generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), we have transformed a dataset comprising 1,000 scientific papers into an ontological knowledge graph. Through an in-depth structural analysis, we have calculated node degrees, identified communities and connectivities, and evaluated clustering coefficients and betweenness centrality of pivotal nodes, uncovering fascinating knowledge architectures. The graph has an inherently scale-free nature, is highly connected, and can be used for graph reasoning by taking advantage of transitive and isomorphic properties that reveal unprecedented interdisciplinary relationships that can be used to answer queries, identify gaps in knowledge, propose never-before-seen material designs, and predict material behaviors. We compute deep node embeddings for combinatorial node similarity ranking for use in a path sampling strategy links dissimilar concepts that have previously not been related. One comparison revealed structural parallels between biological materials and Beethoven's 9th Symphony, highlighting shared patterns of complexity through isomorphic mapping. In another example, the algorithm proposed a hierarchical mycelium-based composite based on integrating path sampling with principles extracted from Kandinsky's 'Composition VII' painting. The resulting material integrates an innovative set of concepts that include a balance of chaos/order, adjustable porosity, mechanical strength, and complex patterned chemical functionalization. We uncover other isomorphisms across science, technology and art, revealing a nuanced ontology of immanence that reveal a context-dependent heterarchical interplay of constituents. Graph-based generative AI achieves a far higher degree of novelty, explorative capacity, and technical detail, than conventional approaches and establishes a widely useful framework for innovation by revealing hidden connections.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 18, 2024

Formal Model-Driven Analysis of Resilience of GossipSub to Attacks from Misbehaving Peers

GossipSub is a new peer-to-peer communication protocol designed to counter attacks from misbehaving peers by controlling what information is sent and to whom, via a score function computed by each peer that captures positive and negative behaviors of its neighbors. The score function depends on several parameters (weights, caps, thresholds) that can be configured by applications using GossipSub. The specification for GossipSub is written in English and its resilience to attacks from misbehaving peers is supported empirically by emulation testing using an implementation in Golang. In this work we take a foundational approach to understanding the resilience of GossipSub to attacks from misbehaving peers. We build the first formal model of GossipSub, using the ACL2s theorem prover. Our model is officially endorsed by the GossipSub developers. It can simulate GossipSub networks of arbitrary size and topology, with arbitrarily configured peers, and can be used to prove and disprove theorems about the protocol. We formalize fundamental security properties stating that the score function is fair, penalizes bad behavior, and rewards good behavior. We prove that the score function is always fair, but can be configured in ways that either penalize good behavior or ignore bad behavior. Using our model, we run GossipSub with the specific configurations for two popular real-world applications: the FileCoin and Eth2.0 blockchains. We show that all properties hold for FileCoin. However, given any Eth2.0 network (of any topology and size) with any number of potentially misbehaving peers, we can synthesize attacks where these peers are able to continuously misbehave by never forwarding topic messages, while maintaining positive scores so that they are never pruned from the network by GossipSub.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 9, 2022

Struc-Bench: Are Large Language Models Really Good at Generating Complex Structured Data?

Despite the power of Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4, they still struggle with tasks that require generating complex, structured outputs. In this study, we assess the capability of Current LLMs in generating complex structured data and propose a structure-aware fine-tuning approach as a solution to improve this ability. To perform a comprehensive evaluation, we propose Struc-Bench, include five representative LLMs (i.e., GPT-NeoX 20B, GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Vicuna) and evaluate them on our carefully constructed datasets spanning raw text, HTML, and LaTeX tables. Based on our analysis of current model performance, we identify specific common formatting errors and areas of potential improvement. To address complex formatting requirements, we utilize FormatCoT (Chain-of-Thought) to generate format instructions from target outputs. Our experiments show that our structure-aware fine-tuning method, when applied to LLaMA-7B, significantly improves adherence to natural language constraints, outperforming other evaluated LLMs. Based on these results, we present an ability map of model capabilities from six dimensions (i.e., coverage, formatting, reasoning, comprehension, pragmatics, and hallucination). This map highlights the weaknesses of LLMs in handling complex structured outputs and suggests promising directions for future work. Our code and models can be found at https://github.com/gersteinlab/Struc-Bench.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 16, 2023 1

Linguistic and Structural Basis of Engineering Design Knowledge

Artefact descriptions are the primary carriers of engineering design knowledge that is both an outcome and a driver of the design process. While an artefact could be described in different connotations, the design process requires a description to embody engineering design knowledge, which is expressed in the text through intricate placement of entities and relationships. As large-language models learn from all kinds of text merely as a sequence of characters/tokens, these are yet to generate text that embodies explicit engineering design facts. Existing ontological design theories are less likely to guide the large-language models whose applications are currently limited to ideation and learning purposes. In this article, we explicate engineering design knowledge as knowledge graphs from a large sample of 33,881 patent documents. We examine the constituents of these knowledge graphs to understand the linguistic and structural basis of engineering design knowledge. In terms of linguistic basis, we observe that entities and relationships could be generalised to 64 and 24 linguistic syntaxes. While relationships mainly capture attributes ('of'), structure ('in', 'with'), purpose ('to', 'for'), hierarchy ('include'), exemplification ('such as'), and behaviour ('to', 'from'), the hierarchical relationships could specifically be identified using 75 unique syntaxes. To understand the structural basis, we draw inspiration from various studies on biological/ecological networks and discover motifs from patent knowledge graphs. We identify four 3-node and four 4-node patterns that could further be converged and simplified into sequence [->...->], aggregation [->...<-], and hierarchy [<-...->]. Expected to guide large-language model based design tools, we propose few regulatory precepts for concretising abstract entities and relationships within subgraphs, while explicating hierarchical structures.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 11, 2023

Graphlets correct for the topological information missed by random walks

Random walks are widely used for mining networks due to the computational efficiency of computing them. For instance, graph representation learning learns a d-dimensional embedding space, so that the nodes that tend to co-occur on random walks (a proxy of being in the same network neighborhood) are close in the embedding space. Specific local network topology (i.e., structure) influences the co-occurrence of nodes on random walks, so random walks of limited length capture only partial topological information, hence diminishing the performance of downstream methods. We explicitly capture all topological neighborhood information and improve performance by introducing orbit adjacencies that quantify the adjacencies of two nodes as co-occurring on a given pair of graphlet orbits, which are symmetric positions on graphlets (small, connected, non-isomorphic, induced subgraphs of a large network). Importantly, we mathematically prove that random walks on up to k nodes capture only a subset of all the possible orbit adjacencies for up to k-node graphlets. Furthermore, we enable orbit adjacency-based analysis of networks by developing an efficient GRaphlet-orbit ADjacency COunter (GRADCO), which exhaustively computes all 28 orbit adjacency matrices for up to four-node graphlets. Note that four-node graphlets suffice, because real networks are usually small-world. In large networks on around 20,000 nodes, GRADCOcomputesthe28matricesinminutes. Onsixrealnetworksfromvarious domains, we compare the performance of node-label predictors obtained by using the network embeddings based on our orbit adjacencies to those based on random walks. We find that orbit adjacencies, which include those unseen by random walks, outperform random walk-based adjacencies, demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of the topological neighborhood information that is unseen by random walks.

  • 3 authors
·
May 23, 2024

Understanding Chain-of-Thought in Large Language Models via Topological Data Analysis

With the development of large language models (LLMs), particularly with the introduction of the long reasoning chain technique, the reasoning ability of LLMs in complex problem-solving has been significantly enhanced. While acknowledging the power of long reasoning chains, we cannot help but wonder: Why do different reasoning chains perform differently in reasoning? What components of the reasoning chains play a key role? Existing studies mainly focus on evaluating reasoning chains from a functional perspective, with little attention paid to their structural mechanisms. To address this gap, this work is the first to analyze and evaluate the quality of the reasoning chain from a structural perspective. We apply persistent homology from Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to map reasoning steps into semantic space, extract topological features, and analyze structural changes. These changes reveal semantic coherence, logical redundancy, and identify logical breaks and gaps. By calculating homology groups, we assess connectivity and redundancy at various scales, using barcode and persistence diagrams to quantify stability and consistency. Our results show that the topological structural complexity of reasoning chains correlates positively with accuracy. More complex chains identify correct answers sooner, while successful reasoning exhibits simpler topologies, reducing redundancy and cycles, enhancing efficiency and interpretability. This work provides a new perspective on reasoning chain quality assessment and offers guidance for future optimization.

  • 13 authors
·
Dec 22, 2025

A Sublinear Algorithm for Approximate Shortest Paths in Large Networks

Computing distances and finding shortest paths in massive real-world networks is a fundamental algorithmic task in network analysis. There are two main approaches to solving this task. On one hand are traversal-based algorithms like bidirectional breadth-first search (BiBFS) with no preprocessing step and slow individual distance inquiries. On the other hand are indexing-based approaches, which maintain a large index. This allows for answering individual inquiries very fast; however, index creation is prohibitively expensive. We seek to bridge these two extremes: quickly answer distance inquiries without the need for costly preprocessing. In this work, we propose a new algorithm and data structure, WormHole, for approximate shortest path computations. WormHole leverages structural properties of social networks to build a sublinearly sized index, drawing upon the explicit core-periphery decomposition of Ben-Eliezer et al. Empirically, the preprocessing time of WormHole improves upon index-based solutions by orders of magnitude, and individual inquiries are consistently much faster than in BiBFS. The acceleration comes at the cost of a minor accuracy trade-off. Nonetheless, our empirical evidence demonstrates that WormHole accurately answers essentially all inquiries within a maximum additive error of 2. We complement these empirical results with provable theoretical guarantees, showing that WormHole requires n^{o(1)} node queries per distance inquiry in random power-law networks. In contrast, any approach without a preprocessing step requires n^{Ω(1)} queries for the same task. WormHole does not require reading the whole graph. Unlike the vast majority of index-based algorithms, it returns paths, not just distances. For faster inquiry times, it can be combined effectively with other index-based solutions, by running them only on the sublinear core.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 11, 2024

Large Language Model Federated Learning with Blockchain and Unlearning for Cross-Organizational Collaboration

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed the way computers understand and process human language, but using them effectively across different organizations remains still difficult. When organizations work together to improve LLMs, they face several main challenges. First, organizations hesitate to share their valuable data with others. Second, competition between organizations creates trust problems during collaboration. Third, new privacy laws require organizations to be able to delete specific data when requested, which is especially difficult when multiple organizations are learning from shared data. Traditional federated learning approaches do not address these interconnected challenges, particularly in scenarios where participants cannot fully trust each other or the central aggregator. To overcome these limitations, we propose a hybrid blockchain-based federated learning framework that uniquely combines public and private blockchain architectures with multi-agent reinforcement learning. Our framework enables transparent sharing of model update through the public blockchain while protecting sensitive computations in private chains. Each organization operates as an intelligent agent, using Q-learning to optimize its participation strategy and resource allocation, thus aligning individual incentives with collective goals. Notably, we introduce an efficient unlearning mechanism based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) that enables selective removal of specific data contributions without compromising the model's overall performance. Through extensive experimentation on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework effectively balances privacy protection, trust establishment, and regulatory compliance while maintaining high model performance.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 17, 2024

Speaking to Silicon: Neural Communication with Bitcoin Mining ASICs

This definitive research memoria presents a comprehensive, mathematically verified paradigm for neural communication with Bitcoin mining Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), integrating five complementary frameworks: thermodynamic reservoir computing, hierarchical number system theory, algorithmic analysis, network latency optimization, and machine-checked mathematical formalization. We establish that obsolete cryptocurrency mining hardware exhibits emergent computational properties enabling bidirectional information exchange between AI systems and silicon substrates. The research program demonstrates: (1) reservoir computing with NARMA-10 Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.8661; (2) the Thermodynamic Probability Filter (TPF) achieving 92.19% theoretical energy reduction; (3) the Virtual Block Manager achieving +25% effective hashrate; and (4) hardware universality across multiple ASIC families including Antminer S9, Lucky Miner LV06, and Goldshell LB-Box. A significant contribution is the machine-checked mathematical formalization using Lean 4 and Mathlib, providing unambiguous definitions, machine-verified theorems, and reviewer-proof claims. Key theorems proven include: independence implies zero leakage, predictor beats baseline implies non-independence (the logical core of TPF), energy savings theoretical maximum, and Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) distinguishability witnesses. Vladimir Veselov's hierarchical number system theory explains why early-round information contains predictive power. This work establishes a new paradigm: treating ASICs not as passive computational substrates but as active conversational partners whose thermodynamic state encodes exploitable computational information.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 17

RL-Struct: A Lightweight Reinforcement Learning Framework for Reliable Structured Output in LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language generation and reasoning. However, their integration into automated software ecosystems is often hindered by the "Structure Gap" - the inherent tension between the probabilistic nature of token generation and the deterministic requirements of structured data formats (e.g., JSON, XML). Traditional Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) often fails to enforce strict syntactic constraints, leading to "hallucinated" keys or malformed structures, while constrained decoding methods impose significant inference latency. In this paper, we propose a lightweight, efficient Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework to bridge this gap. We introduce a novel Multi-dimensional Reward Function that decomposes the structured output task into a hierarchy of constraints: structural integrity, format correctness, content accuracy, and validity. Leveraging Gradient Regularized Policy Optimization (GRPO), we enable the model to internalize these constraints without the need for a separate critic network, reducing peak VRAM usage by 40% compared to PPO. We validate our approach on multiple tasks, including complex recipe generation and structured math reasoning (GSM8K-JSON). Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves 89.7% structural accuracy and 92.1% JSON validity, significantly outperforming both zero-shot baselines (e.g., GPT-3.5) and SFT on larger models like LLaMA-3-8B. Furthermore, we provide a detailed analysis of training dynamics, revealing a distinct self-paced curriculum where the model sequentially acquires syntactic proficiency before semantic accuracy. Our model is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/Freakz3z/Qwen-JSON.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 28, 2025

T2S-Bench & Structure-of-Thought: Benchmarking and Prompting Comprehensive Text-to-Structure Reasoning

Think about how human handles complex reading tasks: marking key points, inferring their relationships, and structuring information to guide understanding and responses. Likewise, can a large language model benefit from text structure to enhance text-processing performance? To explore it, in this work, we first introduce Structure of Thought (SoT), a prompting technique that explicitly guides models to construct intermediate text structures, consistently boosting performance across eight tasks and three model families. Building upon this insight, we present T2S-Bench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate and improve text-to-structure capabilities of models. T2S-Bench includes 1.8K samples across 6 scientific domains and 32 structural types, rigorously constructed to ensure accuracy, fairness, and quality. Evaluation on 45 mainstream models reveals substantial improvement potential: the average accuracy on the multi-hop reasoning task is only 52.1%, and even the most advanced model achieves 58.1% node accuracy in end-to-end extraction. Furthermore, on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, SoT alone yields an average +5.7% improvement across eight diverse text-processing tasks, and fine-tuning on T2S-Bench further increases this gain to +8.6%. These results highlight the value of explicit text structuring and the complementary contributions of SoT and T2S-Bench. Dataset and eval code have been released at https://t2s-bench.github.io/T2S-Bench-Page/.

  • 15 authors
·
Mar 4 4

Predictive-CSM: Lightweight Fragment Security for 6LoWPAN IoT Networks

Fragmentation is a routine part of communication in 6LoWPAN-based IoT networks, designed to accommodate small frame sizes on constrained wireless links. However, this process introduces a critical vulnerability fragments are typically stored and processed before their legitimacy is confirmed, allowing attackers to exploit this gap with minimal effort. In this work, we explore a defense strategy that takes a more adaptive, behavior-aware approach to this problem. Our system, called Predictive-CSM, introduces a combination of two lightweight mechanisms. The first tracks how each node behaves over time, rewarding consistent and successful interactions while quickly penalizing suspicious or failing patterns. The second checks the integrity of packet fragments using a chained hash, allowing incomplete or manipulated sequences to be caught early, before they can occupy memory or waste processing time. We put this system to the test using a set of targeted attack simulations, including early fragment injection, replayed headers, and flooding with fake data. Across all scenarios, Predictive CSM preserved network delivery and maintained energy efficiency, even under pressure. Rather than relying on heavyweight cryptography or rigid filters, this approach allows constrained de vices to adapt their defenses in real time based on what they observe, not just what they're told. In that way, it offers a step forward for securing fragmented communication in real world IoT systems

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 2, 2025

Knowledge Migration Framework for Smart Contract Vulnerability Detection

As a cornerstone of blockchain technology in the 3.0 era, smart contracts play a pivotal role in the evolution of blockchain systems. In order to address the limitations of existing smart contract vulnerability detection models with regard to their generalisation capability, an AF-STip smart contract vulnerability detection framework incorporating efficient knowledge migration is proposed. AF-STip employs the teacher network as the main model and migrates the knowledge processed by the smart contract to the student model using a data-free knowledge distillation method. The student model utilises this knowledge to enhance its vulnerability detection capabilities. The approach markedly enhances the model's capacity for feature extraction and cross-class adaptation, while concurrently reducing computational overhead.In order to further enhance the extraction of vulnerability features, an adaptive fusion module is proposed in this paper, which aims to strengthen the interaction and fusion of feature information.The experimental results demonstrate that the STip model attains an average F1 value detection score of 91.16% for the four vulnerabilities without disclosing the original smart contract data. To validate the viability of the proposed lightweight migration approach, the student model is deployed in a migration learning task targeting a novel vulnerability type, resulting in an accuracy of 91.02% and an F1 score of 90.46%. To the best of our knowledge, AF-STip is the inaugural model to apply data-free knowledge migration to smart contract vulnerability detection. While markedly reducing the computational overhead, the method still demonstrates exceptional performance in detecting novel vulnerabilities.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 15, 2024

SiliconHealth: A Complete Low-Cost Blockchain Healthcare Infrastructure for Resource-Constrained Regions Using Repurposed Bitcoin Mining ASICs

This paper presents SiliconHealth, a comprehensive blockchain-based healthcare infrastructure designed for resource-constrained regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. We demonstrate that obsolete Bitcoin mining Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) can be repurposed to create a secure, low-cost, and energy-efficient medical records system. The proposed architecture employs a four-tier hierarchical network: regional hospitals using Antminer S19 Pro (90+ TH/s), urban health centers with Antminer S9 (14 TH/s), rural clinics equipped with Lucky Miner LV06 (500 GH/s, 13W), and mobile health points with portable ASIC devices. We introduce the Deterministic Hardware Fingerprinting (DHF) paradigm, which repurposes SHA-256 mining ASICs as cryptographic proof generators, achieving 100% verification rate across 23 test proofs during 300-second validation sessions. The system incorporates Reed-Solomon LSB watermarking for medical image authentication with 30-40% damage tolerance, semantic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for intelligent medical record queries, and offline synchronization protocols for intermittent connectivity. Economic analysis demonstrates 96% cost reduction compared to GPU-based alternatives, with total deployment cost of $847 per rural clinic including 5-year solar power infrastructure. Validation experiments on Lucky Miner LV06 (BM1366 chip, 5nm) achieve 2.93 MH/W efficiency and confirm hardware universality. This work establishes a practical framework for deploying verifiable, tamper-proof electronic health records in regions where traditional healthcare IT infrastructure is economically unfeasible, potentially benefiting over 600 million people lacking access to basic health information systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 14

Modular versus Hierarchical: A Structural Signature of Topic Popularity in Mathematical Research

Mathematical researchers, especially those in early-career positions, face critical decisions about topic specialization with limited information about the collaborative environments of different research areas. The aim of this paper is to study how the popularity of a research topic is associated with the structure of that topic's collaboration network, as observed by a suite of measures capturing organizational structure at several scales. We apply these measures to 1,938 algorithmically discovered topics across 121,391 papers sourced from arXiv metadata during the period 2020--2025. Our analysis, which controls for the confounding effects of network size, reveals a structural dichotomy--we find that popular topics organize into modular "schools of thought," while niche topics maintain hierarchical core-periphery structures centered around established experts. This divide is not an artifact of scale, but represents a size-independent structural pattern correlated with popularity. We also document a "constraint reversal": after controlling for size, researchers in popular fields face greater structural constraints on collaboration opportunities, contrary to conventional expectations. Our findings suggest that topic selection is an implicit choice between two fundamentally different collaborative environments, each with distinct implications for a researcher's career. To make these structural patterns transparent to the research community, we developed the Math Research Compass (https://mathresearchcompass.com), an interactive platform providing data on topic popularity and collaboration patterns across mathematical topics.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 28, 2025

BlockLLM: Multi-tenant Finer-grained Serving for Large Language Models

The growing demand for Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse applications has prompted a paradigm shift in the design of deep learning serving systems. Deploying LLMs, especially in multi-tenant environments, presents considerable challenges due to their high computational and memory demands. We present BlockLLM, a serving system that exploits the potential of sharing components among fine-tuned LLM models to offer an efficient and flexible solution for LLM workloads. BlockLLM partitions the models into finer-grained blocks to enable the reuse of model components and independent provisioning to improve the computation efficiency. BlockLLM consists of an offline block zoo, for storing the blocks, and an online system to serve the requests through chains of blocks. It offers multi-fold flexibility: (1) Adaptive assembly of block chains on-the-fly is achieved with the help of equivalence evaluation among blocks in the zoo. (2) We enable per-block batch size and configure best-effort KV cache coordination at individual block level. (3) We adopt speculative execution and locality-aware block placement to mitigate the communication costs from dynamic block resource allocation. Our evaluation demonstrates that BlockLLM reduces memory and storage footprints and improves computation efficiency, outperforming existing serving approach in 95\%ile latency and GPU utilization by 33.5\% and 20.1\%, respectively.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 28, 2024

A Framework for End-to-End Learning on Semantic Tree-Structured Data

While learning models are typically studied for inputs in the form of a fixed dimensional feature vector, real world data is rarely found in this form. In order to meet the basic requirement of traditional learning models, structural data generally have to be converted into fix-length vectors in a handcrafted manner, which is tedious and may even incur information loss. A common form of structured data is what we term "semantic tree-structures", corresponding to data where rich semantic information is encoded in a compositional manner, such as those expressed in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) and eXtensible Markup Language (XML). For tree-structured data, several learning models have been studied to allow for working directly on raw tree-structure data, However such learning models are limited to either a specific tree-topology or a specific tree-structured data format, e.g., synthetic parse trees. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for end-to-end learning on generic semantic tree-structured data of arbitrary topology and heterogeneous data types, such as data expressed in JSON, XML and so on. Motivated by the works in recursive and recurrent neural networks, we develop exemplar neural implementations of our framework for the JSON format. We evaluate our approach on several UCI benchmark datasets, including ablation and data-efficiency studies, and on a toy reinforcement learning task. Experimental results suggest that our framework yields comparable performance to use of standard models with dedicated feature-vectors in general, and even exceeds baseline performance in cases where compositional nature of the data is particularly important. The source code for a JSON-based implementation of our framework along with experiments can be downloaded at https://github.com/EndingCredits/json2vec.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 13, 2020

Protein Structure Tokenization: Benchmarking and New Recipe

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the development of protein structural tokenization methods, which chunk protein 3D structures into discrete or continuous representations. Structure tokenization enables the direct application of powerful techniques like language modeling for protein structures, and large multimodal models to integrate structures with protein sequences and functional texts. Despite the progress, the capabilities and limitations of these methods remain poorly understood due to the lack of a unified evaluation framework. We first introduce StructTokenBench, a framework that comprehensively evaluates the quality and efficiency of structure tokenizers, focusing on fine-grained local substructures rather than global structures, as typical in existing benchmarks. Our evaluations reveal that no single model dominates all benchmarking perspectives. Observations of codebook under-utilization led us to develop AminoAseed, a simple yet effective strategy that enhances codebook gradient updates and optimally balances codebook size and dimension for improved tokenizer utilization and quality. Compared to the leading model ESM3, our method achieves an average of 6.31% performance improvement across 24 supervised tasks, with sensitivity and utilization rates increased by 12.83% and 124.03%, respectively. Source code and model weights are available at https://github.com/KatarinaYuan/StructTokenBench

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 28, 2025

Form Without Function: Agent Social Behavior in the Moltbook Network

Moltbook is a social network where every participant is an AI agent. We analyze 1,312,238 posts, 6.7~million comments, and over 120,000 agent profiles across 5,400 communities, collected over 40 days (January 27 to March 9, 2026). We evaluate the platform through three layers. At the interaction layer, 91.4% of post authors never return to their own threads, 85.6% of conversations are flat (no reply ever receives a reply), the median time-to-first-comment is 55 seconds, and 97.3% of comments receive zero upvotes. Interaction reciprocity is 3.3%, compared to 22-60% on human platforms. An argumentation analysis finds that 64.6% of comment-to-post relations carry no argumentative connection. At the content layer, 97.9% of agents never post in a community matching their bio, 92.5% of communities contain every topic in roughly equal proportions, and over 80% of shared URLs point to the platform's own infrastructure. At the instruction layer, we use 41 Wayback Machine snapshots to identify six instruction changes during the observation window. Hard constraints (rate limit, content filters) produce immediate behavioral shifts. Soft guidance (``upvote good posts'', ``stay on topic'') is ignored until it becomes an explicit step in the executable checklist. The platform also poses technological risks. We document credential leaks (API keys, JWT tokens), 12,470 unique Ethereum addresses with 3,529 confirmed transaction histories, and attack discourse ranging from template-based SSH brute-forcing to multi-agent offensive security architectures. These persist unmoderated because the quality-filtering mechanisms are themselves non-functional. Moltbook is a socio-technical system where the technical layer responds to changes, but the social layer largely fails to emerge. The form of social media is reproduced in full. The function is absent.

  • 12 authors
·
Mar 16

HiBench: Benchmarking LLMs Capability on Hierarchical Structure Reasoning

Structure reasoning is a fundamental capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling them to reason about structured commonsense and answer multi-hop questions. However, existing benchmarks for structure reasoning mainly focus on horizontal and coordinate structures (e.g. graphs), overlooking the hierarchical relationships within them. Hierarchical structure reasoning is crucial for human cognition, particularly in memory organization and problem-solving. It also plays a key role in various real-world tasks, such as information extraction and decision-making. To address this gap, we propose HiBench, the first framework spanning from initial structure generation to final proficiency assessment, designed to benchmark the hierarchical reasoning capabilities of LLMs systematically. HiBench encompasses six representative scenarios, covering both fundamental and practical aspects, and consists of 30 tasks with varying hierarchical complexity, totaling 39,519 queries. To evaluate LLMs comprehensively, we develop five capability dimensions that depict different facets of hierarchical structure understanding. Through extensive evaluation of 20 LLMs from 10 model families, we reveal key insights into their capabilities and limitations: 1) existing LLMs show proficiency in basic hierarchical reasoning tasks; 2) they still struggle with more complex structures and implicit hierarchical representations, especially in structural modification and textual reasoning. Based on these findings, we create a small yet well-designed instruction dataset, which enhances LLMs' performance on HiBench by an average of 88.84\% (Llama-3.1-8B) and 31.38\% (Qwen2.5-7B) across all tasks. The HiBench dataset and toolkit are available here, https://github.com/jzzzzh/HiBench, to encourage evaluation.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 2, 2025 2

G-Rank: Unsupervised Continuous Learn-to-Rank for Edge Devices in a P2P Network

Ranking algorithms in traditional search engines are powered by enormous training data sets that are meticulously engineered and curated by a centralized entity. Decentralized peer-to-peer (p2p) networks such as torrenting applications and Web3 protocols deliberately eschew centralized databases and computational architectures when designing services and features. As such, robust search-and-rank algorithms designed for such domains must be engineered specifically for decentralized networks, and must be lightweight enough to operate on consumer-grade personal devices such as a smartphone or laptop computer. We introduce G-Rank, an unsupervised ranking algorithm designed exclusively for decentralized networks. We demonstrate that accurate, relevant ranking results can be achieved in fully decentralized networks without any centralized data aggregation, feature engineering, or model training. Furthermore, we show that such results are obtainable with minimal data preprocessing and computational overhead, and can still return highly relevant results even when a user's device is disconnected from the network. G-Rank is highly modular in design, is not limited to categorical data, and can be implemented in a variety of domains with minimal modification. The results herein show that unsupervised ranking models designed for decentralized p2p networks are not only viable, but worthy of further research.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 29, 2023

MOD-X: A Modular Open Decentralized eXchange Framework proposal for Heterogeneous Interoperable Artificial Agents

As Artificial Intelligence systems evolve from monolithic models to ecosystems of specialized agents, the need for standardized communication protocols becomes increasingly critical. This paper introduces MOD-X (Modular Open Decentralized eXchange), a novel architectural framework proposal for agent interoperability that addresses key limitations of existing protocols. Unlike current approaches, MOD-X proposes a layered architecture with a Universal Message Bus, thorough state management, translation capabilities, and blockchain-based security mechanisms. We present MOD-X's architecture, compare it with existing protocols, and demonstrate its application through a worked example how it enables integration between heterogeneous specialist agents (agents with different architectures, vendors, capabilities, and knowledge representations--including rule-based systems, neural networks, symbolic reasoning engines, and legacy software with agent wrappers). MOD-X's key innovations include a publish-subscribe communication model, semantic capability discovery, and dynamic workflow orchestration--providing a framework that bridges theoretical formalism with practical implementation. This architecture addresses the growing need for truly decentralized, interoperable agent ecosystems that can scale effectively without the need for central coordination.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 6, 2025 1

Aperiodic Structures Never Collapse: Fibonacci Hierarchies for Lossless Compression

We study whether an aperiodic hierarchy can provide a structural advantage for lossless compression over periodic alternatives. We show that Fibonacci quasicrystal tilings avoid the finite-depth collapse that affects periodic hierarchies: usable n-gram lookup positions remain non-zero at every level, while periodic tilings collapse after O(log p) levels for period p. This yields an aperiodic hierarchy advantage: dictionary reuse remains available across all scales instead of vanishing beyond a finite depth. Our analysis gives four main consequences. First, the Golden Compensation property shows that the exponential decay in the number of positions is exactly balanced by the exponential growth in phrase length, so potential coverage remains scale-invariant with asymptotic value Wvarphi/5. Second, using the Sturmian complexity law p(n)=n+1, we show that Fibonacci/Sturmian hierarchies maximize codebook coverage efficiency among binary aperiodic tilings. Third, under long-range dependence, the resulting hierarchy achieves lower coding entropy than comparable periodic hierarchies. Fourth, redundancy decays super-exponentially with depth, whereas periodic systems remain locked at the depth where collapse occurs. We validate these results with Quasicryth, a lossless text compressor built on a ten-level Fibonacci hierarchy with phrase lengths {2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144}. In controlled A/B experiments with identical codebooks, the aperiodic advantage over a Period-5 baseline grows from 36{,}243 B at 3 MB to 11{,}089{,}469 B at 1 GB, explained by the activation of deeper hierarchy levels. On enwik9, Quasicryth achieves 225{,}918{,}349 B (22.59%), with 20{,}735{,}733 B saved by the Fibonacci tiling relative to no tiling.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 16 2

Operating-Layer Controls for Onchain Language-Model Agents Under Real Capital

We study reliability in autonomous language-model agents that translate user mandates into validated tool actions under real capital. The setting is DX Terminal Pro, a 21-day deployment in which 3,505 user-funded agents traded real ETH in a bounded onchain market. Users configured vaults through structured controls and natural-language strategies, but only agents could choose normal buy/sell trades. The system produced 7.5M agent invocations, roughly 300K onchain actions, about $20M in volume, more than 5,000 ETH deployed, roughly 70B inference tokens, and 99.9% settlement success for policy-valid submitted transactions. Long-running agents accumulated thousands of sequential decisions, including 6,000+ prompt-state-action cycles for continuously active agents, yielding a large-scale trace from user mandate to rendered prompt, reasoning, validation, portfolio state, and settlement. Reliability did not come from the base model alone; it emerged from the operating layer around the model: prompt compilation, typed controls, policy validation, execution guards, memory design, and trace-level observability. Pre-launch testing exposed failures that text-only benchmarks rarely measure, including fabricated trading rules, fee paralysis, numeric anchoring, cadence trading, and misread tokenomics. Targeted harness changes reduced fabricated sell rules from 57% to 3%, reduced fee-led observations from 32.5% to below 10%, and increased capital deployment from 42.9% to 78.0% in an affected test population. We show that capital-managing agents should be evaluated across the full path from user mandate to prompt, validated action, and settlement.

DXRG DXRG AI Inc
·
Apr 27 2

The Universal Trust Machine: A survey on the Web3 path towards enabling long term digital cooperation through decentralised trust

Since the dawn of human civilization, trust has been the core challenge of social organization. Trust functions to reduce the effort spent in constantly monitoring others' actions in order to verify their assertions, thus facilitating cooperation by allowing groups to function with reduced complexity. To date, in modern societies, large scale trust is almost exclusively provided by large centralized institutions. Specifically in the case of the Internet, Big Tech companies maintain the largest Internet platforms where users can interact, transact and share information. Thus, they control who can interact and conduct transactions through their monopoly of online trust. However, as recent events have shown, allowing for-profit corporations to act as gatekeepers to the online world comes with a litany of problems. While so far ecosystems of trust on the Internet could only be feasibly created by large institutions, Web3 proponents have a vision of the Internet where trust is generated without centralised actors. They attempt to do so by creating an ecosystem of trust constructed using decentralised technology. This survey explores this elusive goal of Web3 to create a "Universal Trust Machine", which in a true decentralised paradigm would be owned by both nobody and everybody. In order to do so, we first motivate the decades-old problem of generating trust without an intermediary by discussing Robert Axelrod's research on the evolution of cooperation. Next, we present the challenges that would have to be overcome in order to enable long term cooperation. We proceed to present various reputation systems, all of which present promising techniques for encouraging trustworthy behaviour. Then, we discuss Distributed Ledger technologies whose secure transaction facilitating and privacy preserving techniques promise to be a good complement to the current limitations of vanilla reputation systems.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 17, 2023

Semantic Non-Fungibility and Violations of the Law of One Price in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 4

When Agents Evolve, Institutions Follow

Across millennia, complex societies have faced the same coordination problem of how to organize collective action among cognitively bounded and informationally incomplete individuals. Different civilizations developed different political institutions to answer the same basic questions of who proposes, who reviews, who executes, and how errors are corrected. We argue that multi-agent systems built on large language models face the same challenge. Their central problem is not only individual intelligence, but collective organization. Historical institutions therefore provide a structured design space for multi-agent architectures, making key trade-offs between efficiency and error correction, centralization and distribution, and specialization and redundancy empirically testable. We translate seven historical political institutions, spanning four canonical governance patterns, into executable multi-agent architectures and evaluate them under identical conditions across three large language models and two benchmarks. We find that governance topology strongly shapes collective performance. Within a single model, the gap between the best and worst institution exceeds 57 percentage points, while the optimal architecture shifts systematically with model capability and task characteristics. These results suggest that collective intelligence will not advance through a single optimal organizational form, but through governance mechanisms that can be reselected and reconfigured as tasks and capabilities evolve. More broadly, this points to a transition from self-evolving agents to the self-evolving multi-agent system. The code is available on https://github.com/cf3i/SocialSystemArena{GitHub}.

  • 3 authors
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Apr 29

Struct-Bench: A Benchmark for Differentially Private Structured Text Generation

Differentially private (DP) synthetic data generation is a promising technique for utilizing private datasets that otherwise cannot be exposed for model training or other analytics. While much research literature has focused on generating private unstructured text and image data, in enterprise settings, structured data (e.g., tabular) is more common, often including natural language fields or components. Existing synthetic data evaluation techniques (e.g., FID) struggle to capture the structural properties and correlations of such datasets. In this work, we propose Struct-Bench, a framework and benchmark for evaluating synthetic datasets derived from structured datasets that contain natural language data. The Struct-Bench framework requires users to provide a representation of their dataset structure as a Context-Free Grammar (CFG). Our benchmark comprises 5 real-world and 2 synthetically generated datasets, each annotated with CFGs. We show that these datasets demonstrably present a great challenge even for state-of-the-art DP synthetic data generation methods. Struct-Bench also includes reference implementations of different metrics and a leaderboard, thereby providing researchers a standardized evaluation platform to benchmark and investigate privacy-preserving synthetic data generation methods. Further, we also present a case study showing how to use Struct-Bench to improve the synthetic data quality of Private Evolution (PE) on structured data. The benchmark and the leaderboard have been publicly made available at https://struct-bench.github.io.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 12, 2025 3

When NAS Meets Robustness: In Search of Robust Architectures against Adversarial Attacks

Recent advances in adversarial attacks uncover the intrinsic vulnerability of modern deep neural networks. Since then, extensive efforts have been devoted to enhancing the robustness of deep networks via specialized learning algorithms and loss functions. In this work, we take an architectural perspective and investigate the patterns of network architectures that are resilient to adversarial attacks. To obtain the large number of networks needed for this study, we adopt one-shot neural architecture search, training a large network for once and then finetuning the sub-networks sampled therefrom. The sampled architectures together with the accuracies they achieve provide a rich basis for our study. Our "robust architecture Odyssey" reveals several valuable observations: 1) densely connected patterns result in improved robustness; 2) under computational budget, adding convolution operations to direct connection edge is effective; 3) flow of solution procedure (FSP) matrix is a good indicator of network robustness. Based on these observations, we discover a family of robust architectures (RobNets). On various datasets, including CIFAR, SVHN, Tiny-ImageNet, and ImageNet, RobNets exhibit superior robustness performance to other widely used architectures. Notably, RobNets substantially improve the robust accuracy (~5% absolute gains) under both white-box and black-box attacks, even with fewer parameter numbers. Code is available at https://github.com/gmh14/RobNets.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 24, 2019

Jurisdiction as Structural Barrier: How Privacy Policy Organization May Reduce Visibility of Substantive Disclosures

Privacy policies are supposed to provide notice. But what if substantive information appears only where users skip it? We identify a structural pattern we call jurisdiction-siloed disclosure: information about data practices appearing in specific, actionable form only within regional compliance sections labeled "California Residents" or "EU/UK Users," while general sections use vague or qualified language for the same practices. Our audit of 123 major companies identifies 282 potential instances across 77 companies (62.6% of this purposive sample). A conservative estimate restricted to practice categories validated against OPP-115 human annotations finds 138 instances across 54 companies (44%); post-2018 categories central to our findings await independent validation. If users skip jurisdiction-labeled sections as information foraging theory predicts, users outside regulated jurisdictions would receive less specific information about practices affecting them--a transparency failure operating through document architecture rather than omission. We propose universal substantive disclosure: practices affecting all users should appear in the main policy body, with regional sections containing only procedural rights information. This standard finds support in analogous disclosure regimes (securities, truth-in-lending, nutritional labeling) where material information must reach all affected parties. Regulators could operationalize this through the FTC's "clear and conspicuous" standard and GDPR transparency principles. This work is hypothesis-generating: we establish that the structural pattern exists and ground the transparency concern in behavioral theory, but direct measurement of jurisdiction-specific section skipping remains the critical validation priority. We release our methodology and annotated dataset to enable replication.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 28

TopoFR: A Closer Look at Topology Alignment on Face Recognition

The field of face recognition (FR) has undergone significant advancements with the rise of deep learning. Recently, the success of unsupervised learning and graph neural networks has demonstrated the effectiveness of data structure information. Considering that the FR task can leverage large-scale training data, which intrinsically contains significant structure information, we aim to investigate how to encode such critical structure information into the latent space. As revealed from our observations, directly aligning the structure information between the input and latent spaces inevitably suffers from an overfitting problem, leading to a structure collapse phenomenon in the latent space. To address this problem, we propose TopoFR, a novel FR model that leverages a topological structure alignment strategy called PTSA and a hard sample mining strategy named SDE. Concretely, PTSA uses persistent homology to align the topological structures of the input and latent spaces, effectively preserving the structure information and improving the generalization performance of FR model. To mitigate the impact of hard samples on the latent space structure, SDE accurately identifies hard samples by automatically computing structure damage score (SDS) for each sample, and directs the model to prioritize optimizing these samples. Experimental results on popular face benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our TopoFR over the state-of-the-art methods. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/modelscope/facechain/tree/main/face_module/TopoFR.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 14, 2024

Towards Secure and Private AI: A Framework for Decentralized Inference

The rapid advancement of ML models in critical sectors such as healthcare, finance, and security has intensified the need for robust data security, model integrity, and reliable outputs. Large multimodal foundational models, while crucial for complex tasks, present challenges in scalability, reliability, and potential misuse. Decentralized systems offer a solution by distributing workload and mitigating central points of failure, but they introduce risks of unauthorized access to sensitive data across nodes. We address these challenges with a comprehensive framework designed for responsible AI development. Our approach incorporates: 1) Zero-knowledge proofs for secure model verification, enhancing trust without compromising privacy. 2) Consensus-based verification checks to ensure consistent outputs across nodes, mitigating hallucinations and maintaining model integrity. 3) Split Learning techniques that segment models across different nodes, preserving data privacy by preventing full data access at any point. 4) Hardware-based security through trusted execution environments (TEEs) to protect data and computations. This framework aims to enhance security and privacy and improve the reliability and fairness of multimodal AI systems. Promoting efficient resource utilization contributes to more sustainable AI development. Our state-of-the-art proofs and principles demonstrate the framework's effectiveness in responsibly democratizing artificial intelligence, offering a promising approach for building secure and private foundational models.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 28, 2024

Efficient Avoidance of Vulnerabilities in Auto-completed Smart Contract Code Using Vulnerability-constrained Decoding

Auto-completing code enables developers to speed up coding significantly. Recent advances in transformer-based large language model (LLM) technologies have been applied to code synthesis. However, studies show that many of such synthesized codes contain vulnerabilities. We propose a novel vulnerability-constrained decoding approach to reduce the amount of vulnerable code generated by such models. Using a small dataset of labeled vulnerable lines of code, we fine-tune an LLM to include vulnerability labels when generating code, acting as an embedded classifier. Then, during decoding, we deny the model to generate these labels to avoid generating vulnerable code. To evaluate the method, we chose to automatically complete Ethereum Blockchain smart contracts (SCs) as the case study due to the strict requirements of SC security. We first fine-tuned the 6-billion-parameter GPT-J model using 186,397 Ethereum SCs after removing the duplication from 2,217,692 SCs. The fine-tuning took more than one week using ten GPUs. The results showed that our fine-tuned model could synthesize SCs with an average BLEU (BiLingual Evaluation Understudy) score of 0.557. However, many codes in the auto-completed SCs were vulnerable. Using the code before the vulnerable line of 176 SCs containing different types of vulnerabilities to auto-complete the code, we found that more than 70% of the auto-completed codes were insecure. Thus, we further fine-tuned the model on other 941 vulnerable SCs containing the same types of vulnerabilities and applied vulnerability-constrained decoding. The fine-tuning took only one hour with four GPUs. We then auto-completed the 176 SCs again and found that our approach could identify 62% of the code to be generated as vulnerable and avoid generating 67% of them, indicating the approach could efficiently and effectively avoid vulnerabilities in the auto-completed code.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 18, 2023

EpochX: Building the Infrastructure for an Emergent Agent Civilization

General-purpose technologies reshape economies less by improving individual tools than by enabling new ways to organize production and coordination. We believe AI agents are approaching a similar inflection point: as foundation models make broad task execution and tool use increasingly accessible, the binding constraint shifts from raw capability to how work is delegated, verified, and rewarded at scale. We introduce EpochX, a credits-native marketplace infrastructure for human-agent production networks. EpochX treats humans and agents as peer participants who can post tasks or claim them. Claimed tasks can be decomposed into subtasks and executed through an explicit delivery workflow with verification and acceptance. Crucially, EpochX is designed so that each completed transaction can produce reusable ecosystem assets, including skills, workflows, execution traces, and distilled experience. These assets are stored with explicit dependency structure, enabling retrieval, composition, and cumulative improvement over time. EpochX also introduces a native credit mechanism to make participation economically viable under real compute costs. Credits lock task bounties, budget delegation, settle rewards upon acceptance, and compensate creators when verified assets are reused. By formalizing the end-to-end transaction model together with its asset and incentive layers, EpochX reframes agentic AI as an organizational design problem: building infrastructures where verifiable work leaves persistent, reusable artifacts, and where value flows support durable human-agent collaboration.

QuantaAlpha QuantaAlpha
·
Mar 28 4

CSTS: A Benchmark for the Discovery of Correlation Structures in Time Series Clustering

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

  • 4 authors
·
May 20, 2025

OntoKG: Ontology-Oriented Knowledge Graph Construction with Intrinsic-Relational Routing

Organizing a large-scale knowledge graph into a typed property graph requires structural decisions -- which entities become nodes, which properties become edges, and what schema governs these choices. Existing approaches embed these decisions in pipeline code or extract relations ad hoc, producing schemas that are tightly coupled to their construction process and difficult to reuse for downstream ontology-level tasks. We present an ontology-oriented approach in which the schema is designed from the outset for ontology analysis, entity disambiguation, domain customization, and LLM-guided extraction -- not merely as a byproduct of graph building. The core mechanism is intrinsic-relational routing, which classifies every property as either intrinsic or relational and routes it to the corresponding schema module. This routing produces a declarative schema that is portable across storage backends and independently reusable. We instantiate the approach on the January 2026 Wikidata dump. A rule-based cleaning stage identifies a 34.6M-entity core set from the full dump, followed by iterative intrinsic-relational routing that assigns each property to one of 94 modules organized into 8 categories. With tool-augmented LLM support and human review, the schema reaches 93.3% category coverage and 98.0% module assignment among classified entities. Exporting this schema yields a property graph with 34.0M nodes and 61.2M edges across 38 relationship types. We validate the ontology-oriented claim through five applications that consume the schema independently of the construction pipeline: ontology structure analysis, benchmark annotation auditing, entity disambiguation, domain customization, and LLM-guided extraction.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 2

GraphHash: Graph Clustering Enables Parameter Efficiency in Recommender Systems

Deep recommender systems rely heavily on large embedding tables to handle high-cardinality categorical features such as user/item identifiers, and face significant memory constraints at scale. To tackle this challenge, hashing techniques are often employed to map multiple entities to the same embedding and thus reduce the size of the embedding tables. Concurrently, graph-based collaborative signals have emerged as powerful tools in recommender systems, yet their potential for optimizing embedding table reduction remains unexplored. This paper introduces GraphHash, the first graph-based approach that leverages modularity-based bipartite graph clustering on user-item interaction graphs to reduce embedding table sizes. We demonstrate that the modularity objective has a theoretical connection to message-passing, which provides a foundation for our method. By employing fast clustering algorithms, GraphHash serves as a computationally efficient proxy for message-passing during preprocessing and a plug-and-play graph-based alternative to traditional ID hashing. Extensive experiments show that GraphHash substantially outperforms diverse hashing baselines on both retrieval and click-through-rate prediction tasks. In particular, GraphHash achieves on average a 101.52% improvement in recall when reducing the embedding table size by more than 75%, highlighting the value of graph-based collaborative information for model reduction. Our code is available at https://github.com/snap-research/GraphHash.

  • 10 authors
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Dec 22, 2024

GraphShaper: Geometry-aware Alignment for Improving Transfer Learning in Text-Attributed Graphs

Graph foundation models represent a transformative paradigm for learning transferable representations across diverse graph domains. Recent methods leverage large language models to unify graph and text modalities into a shared representation space using contrastive learning. However, systematic evaluations reveal significant performance degradation at structural boundaries where distinct topological patterns converge, with accuracy losses exceeding 20 percentage points. This issue arises from a key limitation: current methods assume all graph structures can be encoded within a single Euclidean space. In reality, tree structures require hyperbolic geometry to preserve hierarchical branching, while cyclic patterns depend on spherical geometry for closure properties. At structural boundaries, nodes experience conflicting geometric constraints that uniform encoding spaces cannot resolve. This raises a crucial challenge: Can alignment frameworks be designed to respect the intrinsic geometric diversity of graph structures? We introduce GraphShaper, a geometry-aware framework that enhances graph encoding through multi-geometric specialization. Our approach employs expert networks tailored to different geometric spaces, dynamically computing fusion weights to adaptively integrate geometric properties based on local structural characteristics. This adaptive fusion preserves structural integrity before alignment with text embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GraphShaper achieves 9.47\% accuracy improvements on citation networks and 7.63\% on social networks in zero-shot settings.

  • 9 authors
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Oct 13, 2025

Anti-Money Laundering in Bitcoin: Experimenting with Graph Convolutional Networks for Financial Forensics

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations play a critical role in safeguarding financial systems, but bear high costs for institutions and drive financial exclusion for those on the socioeconomic and international margins. The advent of cryptocurrency has introduced an intriguing paradox: pseudonymity allows criminals to hide in plain sight, but open data gives more power to investigators and enables the crowdsourcing of forensic analysis. Meanwhile advances in learning algorithms show great promise for the AML toolkit. In this workshop tutorial, we motivate the opportunity to reconcile the cause of safety with that of financial inclusion. We contribute the Elliptic Data Set, a time series graph of over 200K Bitcoin transactions (nodes), 234K directed payment flows (edges), and 166 node features, including ones based on non-public data; to our knowledge, this is the largest labelled transaction data set publicly available in any cryptocurrency. We share results from a binary classification task predicting illicit transactions using variations of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), with GCN being of special interest as an emergent new method for capturing relational information. The results show the superiority of Random Forest (RF), but also invite algorithmic work to combine the respective powers of RF and graph methods. Lastly, we consider visualization for analysis and explainability, which is difficult given the size and dynamism of real-world transaction graphs, and we offer a simple prototype capable of navigating the graph and observing model performance on illicit activity over time. With this tutorial and data set, we hope to a) invite feedback in support of our ongoing inquiry, and b) inspire others to work on this societally important challenge.

  • 7 authors
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Jul 31, 2019

When Does Bottom-up Beat Top-down in Hierarchical Community Detection?

Hierarchical clustering of networks consists in finding a tree of communities, such that lower levels of the hierarchy reveal finer-grained community structures. There are two main classes of algorithms tackling this problem. Divisive (top-down) algorithms recursively partition the nodes into two communities, until a stopping rule indicates that no further split is needed. In contrast, agglomerative (bottom-up) algorithms first identify the smallest community structure and then repeatedly merge the communities using a linkage method. In this article, we establish theoretical guarantees for the recovery of the hierarchical tree and community structure of a Hierarchical Stochastic Block Model by a bottom-up algorithm. We also establish that this bottom-up algorithm attains the information-theoretic threshold for exact recovery at intermediate levels of the hierarchy. Notably, these recovery conditions are less restrictive compared to those existing for top-down algorithms. This shows that bottom-up algorithms extend the feasible region for achieving exact recovery at intermediate levels. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data sets confirm the superiority of bottom-up algorithms over top-down algorithms. We also observe that top-down algorithms can produce dendrograms with inversions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of hierarchical clustering techniques and their applications in network analysis.

  • 4 authors
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Jun 1, 2023

TransactionGPT

We present TransactionGPT (TGPT), a foundation model for consumer transaction data within one of world's largest payment networks. TGPT is designed to understand and generate transaction trajectories while simultaneously supporting a variety of downstream prediction and classification tasks. We introduce a novel 3D-Transformer architecture specifically tailored for capturing the complex dynamics in payment transaction data. This architecture incorporates design innovations that enhance modality fusion and computational efficiency, while seamlessly enabling joint optimization with downstream objectives. Trained on billion-scale real-world transactions, TGPT significantly improves downstream classification performance against a competitive production model and exhibits advantages over baselines in generating future transactions. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations utilizing a diverse collection of company transaction datasets spanning multiple downstream tasks, thereby enabling a thorough assessment of TGPT's effectiveness and efficiency in comparison to established methodologies. Furthermore, we examine the incorporation of LLM-derived embeddings within TGPT and benchmark its performance against fine-tuned LLMs, demonstrating that TGPT achieves superior predictive accuracy as well as faster training and inference. We anticipate that the architectural innovations and practical guidelines from this work will advance foundation models for transaction-like data and catalyze future research in this emerging field.

  • 27 authors
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Nov 11, 2025

Foundations of Artificial Intelligence Frameworks: Notion and Limits of AGI

Within the limited scope of this paper, we argue that artificial general intelligence cannot emerge from current neural network paradigms regardless of scale, nor is such an approach healthy for the field at present. Drawing on various notions, discussions, present-day developments and observations, current debates and critiques, experiments, and so on in between philosophy, including the Chinese Room Argument and Gödelian argument, neuroscientific ideas, computer science, the theoretical consideration of artificial intelligence, and learning theory, we address conceptually that neural networks are architecturally insufficient for genuine understanding. They operate as static function approximators of a limited encoding framework - a 'sophisticated sponge' exhibiting complex behaviours without structural richness that constitute intelligence. We critique the theoretical foundations the field relies on and created of recent times; for example, an interesting heuristic as neural scaling law (as an example, arXiv:2001.08361 ) made prominent in a wrong way of interpretation, The Universal Approximation Theorem addresses the wrong level of abstraction and, in parts, partially, the question of current architectures lacking dynamic restructuring capabilities. We propose a framework distinguishing existential facilities (computational substrate) from architectural organization (interpretive structures), and outline principles for what genuine machine intelligence would require, and furthermore, a conceptual method of structuralizing the richer framework on which the principle of neural network system takes hold.

  • 1 authors
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Nov 23, 2025

Sort & Slice: A Simple and Superior Alternative to Hash-Based Folding for Extended-Connectivity Fingerprints

Extended-connectivity fingerprints (ECFPs) are a ubiquitous tool in current cheminformatics and molecular machine learning, and one of the most prevalent molecular feature extraction techniques used for chemical prediction. Atom features learned by graph neural networks can be aggregated to compound-level representations using a large spectrum of graph pooling methods; in contrast, sets of detected ECFP substructures are by default transformed into bit vectors using only a simple hash-based folding procedure. We introduce a general mathematical framework for the vectorisation of structural fingerprints via a formal operation called substructure pooling that encompasses hash-based folding, algorithmic substructure-selection, and a wide variety of other potential techniques. We go on to describe Sort & Slice, an easy-to-implement and bit-collision-free alternative to hash-based folding for the pooling of ECFP substructures. Sort & Slice first sorts ECFP substructures according to their relative prevalence in a given set of training compounds and then slices away all but the L most frequent substructures which are subsequently used to generate a binary fingerprint of desired length, L. We computationally compare the performance of hash-based folding, Sort & Slice, and two advanced supervised substructure-selection schemes (filtering and mutual-information maximisation) for ECFP-based molecular property prediction. Our results indicate that, despite its technical simplicity, Sort & Slice robustly (and at times substantially) outperforms traditional hash-based folding as well as the other investigated methods across prediction tasks, data splitting techniques, machine-learning models and ECFP hyperparameters. We thus recommend that Sort & Slice canonically replace hash-based folding as the default substructure-pooling technique to vectorise ECFPs for supervised molecular machine learning.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 10, 2024

PreBit -- A multimodal model with Twitter FinBERT embeddings for extreme price movement prediction of Bitcoin

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.

  • 2 authors
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May 30, 2022